Your Choice 2009: Why Your Vote Matters

In less than one week, an electorate 700 million strong will begin to elect 550 members to the lower house of Parliament, constituting the 15th Lok Sabha, deciding the government that will run the world's largest democracy for the next half decade. If you're one of those 700 million Indians reading this, the following things are probably true about you:

1. You are middle-class or above in the socio-economic strata.
2. You are young.
   
3. You are urban.
4. You are well-educated.
   

For you, a young, urban, middle-class, well-educated Indian, the following is probably and unfortunately true when it comes to elections:

1. You are far less likely to exercise your franchise than say, a poor, middle-aged, rural farmer.
2. While events such as 26/11 make it more likely you will vote this year, the odds are still steep against a dramatic increase in your demographic's turnout.

After all, "why should I vote?", you might say. In an electorate 700 million strong, does one vote really matter? In short, the answer is yes. For a more detailed explanation, keep reading.

The fact is that most Indian contests tend to be close and a swing of tens of thousands could change the outcome of the contest. The fact that in India we have so many political parties and no run-off voting system means that the politician who wins the most votes in a constituency (even if they took only 20% of the overall votes) wins the seat. And since in a Parliamentary democracy, the central government is formed by the party or coalition with the largest number of seats in Parliament, individual constituencies matter and as a consequence of that, individual votes matter.

Whether you want to vote for the BJP or Congress (or any of the other parties, although I have no idea why you would want to vote for anything but a pan-Indian party since that just leads to chaos and instability), it's up to you. This post is not to pitch for a particular party or coalition (that'll come later). This post is to tell you that your vote matters. The votes of your peers matter. As a well-informed, educated Indian, you can make an informed decision of what direction you want the country to go in during the next five years. Look at India's neighbors for a reminder that this is a freedom that should not be taken for granted.

If you are convinced, great. You can stop reading now or continue reading for a re-affirming your belief that individual votes matter. If you're not yet convinced, perhaps the following statistics from the 2004 General Elections will change your mind. The following list is by no means a list of all the competitive contests in the country or even all the competititive contests within these cities (ex. Mumbai has six Lok Sabha seats of which five were competitive, but I've just mentioned the two most competitive seats below). The following is just some statistics to underscore what I've been saying this entire post: your vote matters. So go, vote!

Mumbai

Mumbai North constituency
Govinda (INC) - 559,763 votes
Ram Naik (BJP) - 511,492 votes
Out of a total of almost 1.12 million votes cast in this constituency, the difference between the two leading candidates was less than 50,000 votes.

Mumbai South constituency
Milind Murli Deora (INC) - 137,956 votes
Jayawantiben Mehta (BJP) - 127,710 votes
Out of a total of almost 275,000 votes cast in this constituency, the difference between the two leading candidates was just about 10,000 votes. Considering that south Mumbai faced the brunt of the Pakistani terrorists' rampage on 26/11, it's worth considering whether an extra 10,000 people will show up to vote this year and whether they will hold the INC (which was part of the government both at the Center and State levels) responsible in any way.

Delhi

South Delhi constituency
Vijay Kumar Malhotra (BJP) - 240,654 votes
R.K. Anand (INC) - 224,649 votes
Out of a total of almost 480,000 votes cast in this constituency, the difference between the two leading candidates was just about 16,000 votes.

Delhi Sadar constituency
Jagdish Tytler (INC) - 140,073 votes
Vijay Goel (BJP) - 124,099 votes
Out of a total of a little more than 270,000 votes cast in this constituency, the difference between the two leading candidates was just about 16,000 votes. The winner from 2004, Jagdish Tytler, has of course been in the news as of late for his alleged involvement in the 1984 post-Indira Gandhi assassination anti-Sikh pogroms. The opposition parties alleged that his being given a clean chit by the Central Bureau of Investigation prior to the commencement of election season was a misuse of the CBI machinery by the ruling government. The resulting media exposure and public backlash has led the Congress party to drop Jagdish Tytler as their candidate from Delhi Sadar this time around. Given the small margin between the candidates in this constituency in the first place in 2004, this controversy may be all that was required for this seat to change hands this year.

Bangalore

Bangalore North constituency
Dr. H.T. Sangliana (BJP) - 473,502 votes
Jaffer Sharieff C.K. (INC) - 443,144 votes
Ibrahim C.M. (JD-S) - 208,588 votes
Out of a total of almost 1.16 million votes cast in this constituency (my home constituency!), the difference between the two leading candidates was just about 30,000 votes. Changing demographics in this part of Bangalore was instrumental in wresting this constituency away from Jaffer Sharieff, who has been repeatedly re-elected from this constituency since 1977, six years before I was even born! If the BJP is to keep this constituency this year, the changed demographics will again have to work in their favor. The 200,000+ votes that the JD-S pulled in this constituency should not matter too much since the JD-S does not have a seat-sharing agreement with either the BJP or the Congress. Besides, Deve Gowda and his JD-S are pretty much heading towards extinction in urban Karnataka thanks to their blatant anti-urban mindset anyway.

Bangalore South constituency
Ananth Kumar (BJP) - 386,682 votes
Krishnappa M (INC) - 324,411 votes
Out of a total of a little more than 800,000 votes cast in this constituency, the difference between the two leading candidates was a little more than 62,000 votes.

Mysore

Mysore constituency
C.H. Vijayashankar (BJP) - 316,442 votes
A.S. Guruswamy (JD-S) - 306,292 votes
Srikantadatta Narasimharaja Wodeyar (INC) - 299,227 votes
Out of a total of almost 960,000 votes cast in this constituency , the difference between the two leading candidates was just about 10,000 votes. Mysore was a close triangular contest in the last election with the BJP candidate beating the JD-S candidate and INC candidate, who is heir to the erstwhile Mysore royal family, just barely. An increased turnout by urban, young, educated, middle-class voters will make all the difference in Mysore in deciding which of these three parties can claim this city's seat for the 15th Lok Sabha.

Pune

Pune constituency
Kalmadi Suresh (INC) - 373,774 votes
Pradip Trimbak Rawat (BJP) - 300,598 votes
Out of a total of almost 770,000 votes cast in this constituency , the difference between the two leading candidates was 73,000 votes. Here too, the BJP will be hoping on voter disillusionment with the Congress from 26/11 and other issues (as noted earlier when talking about Mumbai, the Congress is in power both at the Center and the state level in Maharashtra). With a large number of urban, middle-class, educated people in Pune, it is certainly not out of the question that the BJP can make up this 73,000 vote difference if turnout among this demographic increases and their votes fall in its favor.

Kanpur

Kanpur constituency
Shriprakash Jaiswal (INC) - 211,109 votes
Satya Dev Pachauri (BJP) - 205,471 votes
Haji Mushtaq Solanki (SP) - 159,361 votes
Out of a total of almost 620,000 votes cast in this constituency , the difference between the two leading candidates was less than 6,000 votes! The Congress, more or less extinct in Uttar Pradesh, the nation's most populous state and the state with more seats in Parliament than any other, will desperately be trying to hold onto this seat.

Hopefully, you are now convinced. To find out the polling dates, party candidates' lists and to look up results of past elections dating back to the 1st Lok Sabha elections held in 1951-52 for constituencies across the country, go to the CNN-IBN network's Politics page. The address is http://ibnlive.in.com/politics/stats.php

VOTE!