Your Choice 2009: Why Your Vote Matters

In less than one week, an electorate 700 million strong will begin to elect 550 members to the lower house of Parliament, constituting the 15th Lok Sabha, deciding the government that will run the world's largest democracy for the next half decade. If you're one of those 700 million Indians reading this, the following things are probably true about you:

1. You are middle-class or above in the socio-economic strata.
2. You are young.
   
3. You are urban.
4. You are well-educated.
   

For you, a young, urban, middle-class, well-educated Indian, the following is probably and unfortunately true when it comes to elections:

1. You are far less likely to exercise your franchise than say, a poor, middle-aged, rural farmer.
2. While events such as 26/11 make it more likely you will vote this year, the odds are still steep against a dramatic increase in your demographic's turnout.

After all, "why should I vote?", you might say. In an electorate 700 million strong, does one vote really matter? In short, the answer is yes. For a more detailed explanation, keep reading.

The fact is that most Indian contests tend to be close and a swing of tens of thousands could change the outcome of the contest. The fact that in India we have so many political parties and no run-off voting system means that the politician who wins the most votes in a constituency (even if they took only 20% of the overall votes) wins the seat. And since in a Parliamentary democracy, the central government is formed by the party or coalition with the largest number of seats in Parliament, individual constituencies matter and as a consequence of that, individual votes matter.

Whether you want to vote for the BJP or Congress (or any of the other parties, although I have no idea why you would want to vote for anything but a pan-Indian party since that just leads to chaos and instability), it's up to you. This post is not to pitch for a particular party or coalition (that'll come later). This post is to tell you that your vote matters. The votes of your peers matter. As a well-informed, educated Indian, you can make an informed decision of what direction you want the country to go in during the next five years. Look at India's neighbors for a reminder that this is a freedom that should not be taken for granted.

If you are convinced, great. You can stop reading now or continue reading for a re-affirming your belief that individual votes matter. If you're not yet convinced, perhaps the following statistics from the 2004 General Elections will change your mind. The following list is by no means a list of all the competitive contests in the country or even all the competititive contests within these cities (ex. Mumbai has six Lok Sabha seats of which five were competitive, but I've just mentioned the two most competitive seats below). The following is just some statistics to underscore what I've been saying this entire post: your vote matters. So go, vote!

Mumbai

Mumbai North constituency
Govinda (INC) - 559,763 votes
Ram Naik (BJP) - 511,492 votes
Out of a total of almost 1.12 million votes cast in this constituency, the difference between the two leading candidates was less than 50,000 votes.

Mumbai South constituency
Milind Murli Deora (INC) - 137,956 votes
Jayawantiben Mehta (BJP) - 127,710 votes
Out of a total of almost 275,000 votes cast in this constituency, the difference between the two leading candidates was just about 10,000 votes. Considering that south Mumbai faced the brunt of the Pakistani terrorists' rampage on 26/11, it's worth considering whether an extra 10,000 people will show up to vote this year and whether they will hold the INC (which was part of the government both at the Center and State levels) responsible in any way.

Delhi

South Delhi constituency
Vijay Kumar Malhotra (BJP) - 240,654 votes
R.K. Anand (INC) - 224,649 votes
Out of a total of almost 480,000 votes cast in this constituency, the difference between the two leading candidates was just about 16,000 votes.

Delhi Sadar constituency
Jagdish Tytler (INC) - 140,073 votes
Vijay Goel (BJP) - 124,099 votes
Out of a total of a little more than 270,000 votes cast in this constituency, the difference between the two leading candidates was just about 16,000 votes. The winner from 2004, Jagdish Tytler, has of course been in the news as of late for his alleged involvement in the 1984 post-Indira Gandhi assassination anti-Sikh pogroms. The opposition parties alleged that his being given a clean chit by the Central Bureau of Investigation prior to the commencement of election season was a misuse of the CBI machinery by the ruling government. The resulting media exposure and public backlash has led the Congress party to drop Jagdish Tytler as their candidate from Delhi Sadar this time around. Given the small margin between the candidates in this constituency in the first place in 2004, this controversy may be all that was required for this seat to change hands this year.

Bangalore

Bangalore North constituency
Dr. H.T. Sangliana (BJP) - 473,502 votes
Jaffer Sharieff C.K. (INC) - 443,144 votes
Ibrahim C.M. (JD-S) - 208,588 votes
Out of a total of almost 1.16 million votes cast in this constituency (my home constituency!), the difference between the two leading candidates was just about 30,000 votes. Changing demographics in this part of Bangalore was instrumental in wresting this constituency away from Jaffer Sharieff, who has been repeatedly re-elected from this constituency since 1977, six years before I was even born! If the BJP is to keep this constituency this year, the changed demographics will again have to work in their favor. The 200,000+ votes that the JD-S pulled in this constituency should not matter too much since the JD-S does not have a seat-sharing agreement with either the BJP or the Congress. Besides, Deve Gowda and his JD-S are pretty much heading towards extinction in urban Karnataka thanks to their blatant anti-urban mindset anyway.

Bangalore South constituency
Ananth Kumar (BJP) - 386,682 votes
Krishnappa M (INC) - 324,411 votes
Out of a total of a little more than 800,000 votes cast in this constituency, the difference between the two leading candidates was a little more than 62,000 votes.

Mysore

Mysore constituency
C.H. Vijayashankar (BJP) - 316,442 votes
A.S. Guruswamy (JD-S) - 306,292 votes
Srikantadatta Narasimharaja Wodeyar (INC) - 299,227 votes
Out of a total of almost 960,000 votes cast in this constituency , the difference between the two leading candidates was just about 10,000 votes. Mysore was a close triangular contest in the last election with the BJP candidate beating the JD-S candidate and INC candidate, who is heir to the erstwhile Mysore royal family, just barely. An increased turnout by urban, young, educated, middle-class voters will make all the difference in Mysore in deciding which of these three parties can claim this city's seat for the 15th Lok Sabha.

Pune

Pune constituency
Kalmadi Suresh (INC) - 373,774 votes
Pradip Trimbak Rawat (BJP) - 300,598 votes
Out of a total of almost 770,000 votes cast in this constituency , the difference between the two leading candidates was 73,000 votes. Here too, the BJP will be hoping on voter disillusionment with the Congress from 26/11 and other issues (as noted earlier when talking about Mumbai, the Congress is in power both at the Center and the state level in Maharashtra). With a large number of urban, middle-class, educated people in Pune, it is certainly not out of the question that the BJP can make up this 73,000 vote difference if turnout among this demographic increases and their votes fall in its favor.

Kanpur

Kanpur constituency
Shriprakash Jaiswal (INC) - 211,109 votes
Satya Dev Pachauri (BJP) - 205,471 votes
Haji Mushtaq Solanki (SP) - 159,361 votes
Out of a total of almost 620,000 votes cast in this constituency , the difference between the two leading candidates was less than 6,000 votes! The Congress, more or less extinct in Uttar Pradesh, the nation's most populous state and the state with more seats in Parliament than any other, will desperately be trying to hold onto this seat.

Hopefully, you are now convinced. To find out the polling dates, party candidates' lists and to look up results of past elections dating back to the 1st Lok Sabha elections held in 1951-52 for constituencies across the country, go to the CNN-IBN network's Politics page. The address is http://ibnlive.in.com/politics/stats.php

VOTE!

An Appeal for Obama (and other CA endorsements)

Election day is here. For many, with record numbers choosing to vote early this year, the election is already over with simply the tallying of votes left to be done. But since I strongly subscribe to the policy of better late than never, here are my endorsements for 2008:

President and Vice-President: Obama/Biden '08

I am not going to list policy differences between Obama and McCain as reasons for my endorsement. This campaign has gone on long enough and positions stated often enough that doing so would be the equivalent of flogging a fossilized horse.

To put is succinctly, I support Barack Obama because he represents a generational change in politics. I truly believe he is running for President to lead all of America, not just 50% + 1 of America. While John McCain's campaigns has gone to great lengths to drive a wedge between "real" Americans and others, Barack Obama's message is the same now as it has always been: we do not live in blue states and we do not live in red states, we live in the United States.

Obama shares Howard Dean's 50-state strategy. The problems afflicting the people of Alabama are the same as those afflicting the people of New York. Obama, like Dean, knows that you do not abandon large tracts of the country assuming they will never vote for you. After all, if you don't respect them enough to go and explain your positions and ask them for their vote, what chance do you have of winning? This mindset of inclusive politics can be seen comparing the electoral map of today versus the electoral map of four years ago. The map is more blue than it is red and some of the toss-up states such as Virginia, North Carolina, and Indiana have long been derided as "deep red" and not worthy of putting up a fight. Barack Obama may still lose this election (unlikely as that may be), but it will not be because he did not try hard enough to get people with to vote for him.

A message of hope, unity and action versus one of division and 50%+1 politics. The choice could not be more stark.

This video says it all about the once-in-a-generation candidacy of Barack Obama!

California-specific Endorsements:

California is one of those peculiar states where elected representatives, despite having a job to do, pass the buck back to citizens in the form of propositions to vote on. This year is no different. So here are my endorsements on some of the major propositions before voters today:

Proposition 1A - Vote YES on 1A
Proposition 1A is a bond request measure to begin construction on the first high-speed rail network in the United States. This is an essential measure towards upgrading California's clogged and outdated infrastructure.

Proposition 2 - Vote NO on 2
Proposition 2 is a feel-good, sound-good proposition measure supported by the Humane Society of the United States. Proposition 2 however could not be any more wrong. Proposition 2 will simply cause egg production to shift from California to states such as Iowa, where there are far fewer regulations on animal welfare than in California, since it will be economically unfeasible to produce eggs here. It will destroy the egg industry in California, the vast majority of which consists of small farmers who already lead marginal livelihoods.

Furthermore, there is NO scientific proof that cage-free housing (cage free housing is DIFFERENT from free-range; this measure will simply require cages to be removed, not for the chickens to be free-range) is beneficial for chicken. In fact, there is scientific evidence that chicken kept in large numbers without cages actually display higher rates of cannibalism. Proposition 2 is a measure in contravention of scientific proof, promoted by an extremist advocacy organization , the Humane Society of the United States.

Proposition 7 - Vote NO on 7
Proposition 7 is another measure that reads really well. Unfortunately, it is a very badly worded proposition that will harm California's steps towards increasing renewable energy generation. It is such a bad proposal, it is opposed not only by the California Republican Party, but also the California Democratic Party as well as the Sierra Club.

Proposition 8 - Vote NO on 8
Proposition 8 would overturn the recent Supreme Court verdict and amend the state constitution to make same-sex marriages illegal. Vote against writing discrimination into the constitution. Vote for a tolerant California that can lead the way in America. Vote NO on 8.

Proposition 10 - Vote NO on 10
Proposition 10 would set aside a bond measure to reward consumers for natural gas and other alternative fuel vehicles. The Los Angeles Times editorialized that "Spending bond money on something as intangible as privately owned vehicles is a terrible idea unless there is a clear public benefit." Proposition 10 is opposed by the League of Conservation Voters. Another fishy thing about Proposition 10 is that it seems to disproportionately favor one Texas oilman, whose runs a natural gas supply firm for cars and trucks.

So tell me, just what is so effing special about China?

You know what I don't get? All the focus on China and its "miracle economy" and its "booming stock-market". As an Indian, it's enough to give you a massive inferiority complex. Why oh why can't the Sensex match China's impressive performance, we lament. Then we actually go beyond the news media's infatuation with China to uncover the facts.

Both the Bombay Stock Exchange Sensex and the Shanghai Composite Index, China's flagship index, peaked early this year before dropping precipitously. In fact, the value of the Sensex has dropped about 30% from January 1, 2008. Before we consider this the end of India's economic progress, take note of this, by comparison, the Shanghai Composite has fallen by more than 60%.


OK, you might say, but in its boom years, China's stock market surely must have run laps around India's, right? Over the last 5 years, the Shanghai Composite has increased in value by roughly 50% while the Sensex is about 225% higher than where it was five years ago.


And if you look at the last 11 years, the Sensex has climbed at almost three times the rate of the Shanghai Composite (note the colors are switched below from above).


So when you look at a stock market that has drastically underperformed compared to its neighbor and an economy that is entirely focused on manufacturing cheap, low-quality, unimaginate products that occasionally poison dogs and babies, just what is so effing special about China?

While China may always be able to fill the shelves at Wal-Mart or deliver cars which are carbon copies of western makes (the copying is so blatant that the doors of the Chery QQ and the Chevy Spark are interchangeable), it does not seem capable of generating the innovative spirit that results in America's position today as the undisputed global superpower, Japan's dominance of electronics and automotive sectors or the feat of India's Tata Motors in revolutionizing the global auto industry by coming up with a "people's car" for hundreds of millions around the developing world.

There are signs everywhere that Indians are ditching their inferiority complex, which has spilled over from the British Raj, but it's a process that could, and should, happen faster.

Jammu and Kashmir: Forever a Quagmire?

The crisis raging in Jammu and Kashmir currently, not to mention the absolutely deplorable handling of it by the state and central governments, is particularly illuminating with regard to how much change needs to happen now to secure peace in the state.

First, some history. The state of Jammu and Kashmir's boundaries are largely those of the princely kingdom of the same name that existed prior to independence. As such, it consists of three distinct regions: Hindu-majority Jammu, Muslim-majority Kashmir, and Buddhist-majority Ladakh. It's an unnatural combination forming a state at best and at worse times, the regions of the state can act as bitter enemies.

So what's precipitated this bitter crisis?

• On May 26, 2008 the government of Jammu and Kashmir transferred 100 acres (~40 hectares) of forest land to the Shri Amarnathji Shrine Board for the construction of proper facilities for pilgrims on the annual Amarnath Pilgrimage in Muslim-majority Kashmir.
• There was opposition to land transfer by environmentalist groups on the grounds that it would damage the delicate ecological balance of the region. There was also opposition to the land transfer by many in Muslim-majority Kashmir who argued that this was an attempt to change the demographics of the region -- an accusation that I find totally absurd since this land transfer was to facilitate building facilities for pilgrims, who are by definition temporary visitors, and especially in light of the fact that Muslim separatists have already altered the demographics of Kashmir Valley by the forced expulsion of hundreds of thousands of Hindu Kashmiri "Pandits".
• In late June, Muslim separatists (having had their influence wane in recent years) caught on to the land transfer issue and started rioting in the streets of Srinagar, in Muslim-majority Kashmir and also the capital of Jammu and Kashmir.
• Political parties in Kashmir quickly bent to the demands of the separatists. The People's Democratic Party (PDP) which was part of the government and thus implicitly supported the land transfer initially quickly withdrew support to the government of Congress Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad, reducing it to a minority government.
• In a shocking about-face, Azad capitulated to the terrorists' violent actions and revoked the land transfer order on July 1, 2008 after just four days of rioting in Kashmir -- god forbid that he actually deploy security forces to control the rioting, which was instigated by the separatists. That would have actually been an act of governance.
• The revokation of the land transfer order provoked intense protests in the Jammu region of the state with the Hindu nationalist parties quick to latch on to it, sensing a golden opportunity with which to fight the next elections.
• For much of the past few weeks, an economic blockade has been forced on Kashmir Valley with Hindu groups not letting any trucks into or out of Kashmir through the only highway that connects Kashmir Valley with the rest of India.
• Yesterday, Kashmiris trying to march across the Line of Control into Pakistan-occupied Kashmir with fruits and other produce, that are now rotting in trucks, were fired upon by security forces, killing at least 13 people and one prominent separatist leader.

My thoughts:

First, the revokation of the land transfer order by the Jammu and Kashmir government was unacceptable. The proper way to protest in a democracy is through legal channels that are available, such as a petition or peaceful marches. And the proper way to address an issue in a democracy is on its merits and demerits and considering the laws of the land. Neither were accomplished here. Separatist politicians encouraged rioting and violence in Kashmir valley and the government of Jammu and Kashmir, with utter disregard to the rights of Hindu pilgrims or the merits or demerits of the land transfer, capitulated to the Muslim extremists' wishes.

What did they seriously expect to happen? I am a secular person and traditional supporter of the Congress party, but you can really only push Hindus so far. Jammu has always received secondary importance compared to Kashmir and has been badly neglected by the state government. Did the government of Jammu and Kashmir seriously expect the people of Jammu to stand by idly as they capitulated to Muslim extremists in Kashmir? Hindus in Jammu and Hindus' interests in the state, beginning with making Kashmiri Pandits refugees in their own country, have been mistreated and disregarded for so long, it must have seemed almost like second nature for the Ghulam Nabi Azad government to capitulate to the extremists' demands, with nary a thought to the people of Jammu or to Hindus' interests or even to the Constitutional rule of law, for that matter.

The people of Jammu were right to rise up in protest and I absolutely support them in that regard. They have been mistreated for too long and it was high time to let the politicians know that they were in charge of the state, Jammu and Kashmir.

While I support the protests by the people of Jammu, the economic blockade of Kashmir is unacceptable. You do not have the right to starve and cut off economically an entire region and population because of disagreement on some policy or the other. Again, the economic blockade showcases the government's impotence in being able to keep the highways clear. Come on, it's called "government" for a reason and it's high time they begin governing.

The highway through Jammu and is the ONLY link between Kashmir and the rest of the country and it must be kept open at all times and all costs. Trade through Muzzafarrabad in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir is not an option because that will only further alienate Kashmir from India.

So what should be done now, with the crisis at current levels? My suggestions, in order are as follows:

Short-term measures

1. Sack the governor of Jammu and Kashmir N. N. Vohra immediately; he has primarily been responsible for the current situation with the land transfer order revokation.
2. Elections are expected later this year in Jammu and Kashmir and until then, Ghulam Nabi Azad is continuing as the caretaker Chief Minister. Sack him immediately and invoke Article 356 of the Constitution, putting the state under direct Central Government rule until elections.
3. Meet the Fruit Growers' Association in the Kashmir Valley and other economic entities and assure them that the highway through Jammu will be open; act on that assurance by escorting fruit-laden and other trucks with military convoys through Jammu. Protesters trying to block the highway should be dealt with harshly, including the use of tear gas and rubber bullets, if needed to clear the highway.
4. A state of emergency should be declared in the short-term in both Jammu and Kashmir regions, with mass arrests of both Hindu protesters in Jammu trying to block the highway/uproot railway tracks, etc and separatists in the Kashmir Valley trying to inflame tensions.
5. Constitute a special expert committee to study the environmental impact of the land transfer issue; this and only this should determine whether the land is eventually transferred or not. The committee should come up with a recommendation within a month and it should be immediately implemented. Any violent protests, such as rioting, regarding the final order should be dealt with swiftly and harshly.

Long-term measures:

1. Get rid of Article 370 of the Constitution that grants special autonomy to Jammu and Kashmir; all states in the Indian Union are equal and there should be no preferential treatment to Jammu and Kashmir or any state in the Union.
2. Speed up economic development in the Valley, including the construction of the railway link between Jammu and Srinagar (which has now been pushed back perhaps until 2025 due to Indian politics). Only by winning the hearts and minds of Kashmiris will lasting peace be gained.
   
3. Institute a committee looking into the rehabilitation of Kashmiri Pandits back into the Valley and provide security for any family that chooses to move back.

Only by conducting all these measures will lasting peace be delivered. Anything less will be just a temporary fix.

Freedom in the World 2008

As regular visitors to my blog would know, every year, I provide an updated version of "Freedom in the World", by Freedom House, an organization that tracks political and civil freedom in countries around the world and ranks them as: Free, Partly Free, or Not Free. This year, they took their own time posting the map on their website, as a result of which this post, which should have come about in January is more than half a year late. Nevertheless, as they say, better late than never. So here we go.

The state of freedom in the world in the year 2007 was as follows:


Here's the link to my blog post detailing freedom in the world in the year 2006 for comparison. So what's worth noting?

1) As a matter of pride, I always like to point out the bright green jewel that is India in southern Asia, contrasted as usual with crimson red China to the northeast.

Around India:

2) Thailand has once again moved to "Partly Free" status as the one-year old military regime once again ceded power to a civilian, popularly-elected government after its 2006 coup d'etat. Lingering concerns exist about the degree of manipulation of the electoral machinery undertaking by the military regime, the Council for National Security, in the run-up to the democratic elections, which nonetheless brought about a reinstatement of exiled former-Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's followers to the government.

At the time of the 2006 coup, I spoke out strongly against the actions of the military regime, in multiple blog posts, arguing that however corrupt Thaksin was alleged to be by his urban elite detractors, the proper way to change the government is through the ballot box, not the tank. It seems that the people of Thailand, especially the rural poor who formed the backbone of Thaksin's vote-bank, were able to teach both the military and its urban elite supporters a strong lesson.

Elsewhere:

3) Tiny Togo, sandwiched between Benin and Ghana in West Africa, saw its status improve from Not Free to Partly Free, "due to the success of the 2007 legislative elections, including the ability of Togo’s opposition parties to demonstrate and campaign without interference." More power to the Togans!

Besides these two status changes, Freedom House generally recorded a poor year for freedom in the world in the year 2007, with substantial declines in freedom in numerous countries such as Russia (with its sham of a presidential election), Georgia (where the ruling party resorted to a state of emergency), Pakistan (where Benazir Bhutto was assassinated by Islamic extremists in the run-up to the elections - which were postponed as a result), and Kenya (with massive bloodletting and intertribal mayhem after elections where the ruling party was widely seen to have rigged the results in its favor).

Some encouraging signs:

1) Almost half of the people living in the world are free (3.0282 billion or 45.85%) and almost two-thirds of the world's citizens are either free or partly free (4.2135 billion or 63.79%).

• India and China are again worth noting here. India is home to more than a third of the world's free people (~1.2 billion out of the total ~3 billion free citizens). Meanwhile, China is ignominously home to more than half of the "Not Free" citizens of the world (~1.3 billion out of the total of ~2.4 billion "Not Free" people).

2) The global trend has been unmistakably positive. In 2007, there were 90 free countries in the countries, as opposed to 81 in 1997 and, prior to the fall of the iron curtain, 58 and 43 in 1987 and 1977 respectively.

Other points worth noting:

1) As in 2006, the freest continent in 2007 was undoubtedly Europe, where 33 of the 42 countries (78.57 %) were free. The exceptions were:

• Russia - Where a sham election saw the baton pass from Vladimir Putin to Dmitry Medvedev without a real alternative.
• Belarus - A dictatorship that has the open backing and support of the Kremlin.
• Moldova (Partly Free)
• Turkey (Partly Free) - Where the military, & its hard-line secularist elite backers, continue to hold much power, often overturning the measures of the duly-elected government.
• Macedonia (Partly Free)
• Albania (Partly Free)
• Montenegro (Partly Free)
• Bosnia and Herzegovina (Partly Free)
• Vatican City (Not Free) - A theocracy

Europe was closely followed by North America, where 18 of the 23 countries (78.26%) were free. The exceptions in North America were:

• Cuba
• Haiti (Partly Free)
• Guatemala (Partly Free)
• Honduras (Partly Free)
• Nicaragua (Partly Free)

2) The most dismal continents for freedom were once again Asia and Africa. In Asia, oppression stretched in an unbroken chain from Jeddah in the southwest to Pyongyang in the northeast and Baku in the northwest to Ho Chi Minh City in the southeast.

In Africa, oppression stretched in an unbroken chain from Luanda in the south to Cairo in the north and from Laâyoune in the west to Asmara in the east.

7/25 - A date the world will not remember

Some dates, such as 9/11, 7/7, and 7/11, will be forever stuck in the world's psyche due to the awful destruction caused by the terrorist attacks in New York, London, and Mumbai on those dates in respectively. On the other hand, 7/25 lies far below on the radar, the events of this day barely making the brief sections of international news organizations and was quickly overshadowed by the events that transpired on 7/26 in Ahmedabad.

On 7/25/2008, terrorists struck the peaceful city of Bangalore with eight low-intensity devices that were seemingly intended to disrupt the peace and economy of the city rather than inflict casualties. I was at the Indian Institute of Science campus at the time of the attacks and upon hearing of them, drove home immediately, stopping to drop off a friend at home along the way, and watched television for information on the attacks. For the rest of the day on Friday, I really did not pay much attention to the attacks and went through my normal routine.

On 7/26, as I prepared to head out to my cousin's place for a Saturday night out on the town, I was told about bomb blasts in Ahmedabad by my grandmother, but there was a power cut at the time and could not get more information. As I drove to my cousin's place, I realized that there has been a fundamental change in my outlook.

As I drove alongside ongoing construction on the Bangalore-Hyderabad highway, I reminisced about my thoughts from previous days. They were the thoughts of citizens living in "normal" countries around the world (as opposed to countries we readily associate with strife such as Iraq, Afghanistan, Sudan, etc). They were concerned with the progress of road construction on the highway, the progress of the construction of the Bangalore metro, wondering whether the UPA government at the Center would survive the trust vote or not, speculation about whether crude prices would continue on their downward trend, whether the Indian stock exchanges would continue on their upward trend, how the monsoon would play out in the coming months and whether the nuclear deal with the United States would go through or not.

Of course, all these issues do make it into my thoughts still, but as I was driving yesterday, for a brief moment, they seemed to be supplanted by something far more basic. For the first time that I can recall, I was thinking about whether the government could protect my life. Of course, India is no stranger to terrorism, with 13 major bomb blast incidents occurring in the country in the last five years (not including any in terrorism-prone Jammu and Kashmir), 10 of them in the last three years. But they always occurred in Mumbai, Jaipur, Hyderabad, Varanasi, Delhi ... places far enough away to elicit sympathy but not really hit home.

Now that it's happened in my city, more importantly when I was in it as opposed to being in the field or in the U.S., the feeling of "it could happen to me" struck me yesterday. Despite the fact that "only" 2 persons died from the terrorist attacks in Bangalore, yesterday as I drove, I felt a momentary sense of solidarity with persons driving through the streets of Srinagar, Kabul or Baghdad. Perhaps persons in those cities are more desensitized to the violence and Bangalore's attacks were more jarring because this is such a peaceful town and I fervently hope that it stays that way (i.e., the violence never gets the level where we begin getting desensitized). But I don't think it would be an exaggeration to say that the events of 7/25 contributed to a loss of Bangalore's innocence to an extent.

The increased vigil of citizens around the city prompted a provision store owner to call the police yesterday morning about a suspicious package left across the road, which turned out to be a live bomb and was defused by the bomb squad. Yesterday's incident was a reminder that despite the attacks on 7/25, we need to continue to maintain a higher level of vigil.

At the time of writing, five persons have been injured in a low-intensity bomb blast in the state of Jharkhand. God save India!

America's Downfall

Now that the headline captured your attention, I'm not talking about the Iraq War or the actions of any of the members of the Axis of Evil. Rather, America's foreign policy and its elaborate plans to stabilize Afghanistan will be laid to waste by its so-called "ally" in the war on terror, Pakistan.

When General Musharraf was dictator of Pakistan, the Bush administration lavished billions of dollars of aid and Musharraf kept the American establishment content by providing a top al-Qaeda figurehead every now and then to prove his anti-terror credentials, while simultaneously ignoring the proliferation of a Pakistani Taliban bent on sabotaging the American-backed Hamid Karzai government in Afghanistan. He also exercised little control over Pakistan's rogue Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), which has carefully bred Islamic terrorists at home to use in a proxy war against India in the Kashmir dispute.

At least back then, the Pakistani government had some control over the Army and the ISI. Now, Pakistan is back to its familiar workings - a state where the civilian government has little actual authority over either its military or its intelligence services. Now that the ISI is free to let loose again, they have acted swiftly, attacking Indian interests in Afghanistan. India, a major backer of the anti-Taliban rebel Northern Alliance group, has poured over $750 million into Afghanistan in development projects and India's influence in Afghanistan must certainly have made Pakistan uneasy. But don't trust the Indian ambassador's words, even the Afghan government has pretty much blamed the ISI for carrying out the attack.

But the U.S. is the ostrich with its head in the sand. Even esteemed American newspaper organizations like the New York Times completely refuse to give credence to the fact that America's beloved ally may actually be sleeping with the enemy, making the Indian allegation seem completely without evidence and completely ignoring the fact that the Afghan government has made the same claims, by devoting all of one contemptuous sentence to the very real and important possibility that an American ally may be a state sponsor of terrorism: "Not surprisingly, Pakistan was swiftly blamed for the bombing, and just as swiftly, denied having a hand in it."

Perhaps the New York Times doesn't want to upset its Pakistani-American reader base and lose out on subscriptions or perhaps the attitude of the New York Times reflects the attitude of the American government, complete and utter denial of the fact that its so-called ally could really be one of the biggest destabilizers in the region.

Whatever the reasons, the situation is clear that America possesses neither the willpower nor the foresight to actually secure Afghanistan. It really is time for India to act like a regional power and deploy military forces in the region to protect its interests. India should not hesitate to strike within Pakistan and if the U.S. has any problems, too bad. The U.S. is responsible for Afghanistan being in this pathetic state in the first place after it diverted resources towards an unnecessary war for oil in Iraq. It's time for America to wake up and realize the ground realities that its ally is not as benign as it seems (as well as for the toothless U.S. media outlets (which in a democratic country, should be ashamed of themselves for their [lack of] journalistic courage)). In the meantime, let's go, India. Step up and fulfill your responsibility as a regional power. The time has come!